作者:委拉斯凯兹
发布时间:2019年7月3日
网络来源:新浪微博
Bitcion的价格大概会到达多少?五万美元?百万美元?1.6亿人民币?
很多人都嘲笑1.6亿人民币的价格,觉得是天方夜谭。我觉得这些人真的应该好好看看Hal Finney(哈尔·芬尼)的预测。
Hal Finney在2009年1月11日在tweet上发了一条“Running bitcoin”,现在已经变成了大家朝拜的神迹。但是在同一天,他在回复中本聪的邮件中,预测了Bitcoin可能达到的价格。
https://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg10152.html
他认为如果Bitcoin真的成功了,比特币总价值将与全球财富总值相当,平均下来是1000万美元一个比特币。而且他大胆的说,现在只需要几美分的电费就可以产生一枚比特币,所以这是一个1:1亿的非常好的赌注。
先知就是先知,有时候我们不得不承认,世界其实是一小部分精英推动的。
翻译:
英语原文:
https://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg10152.html
> Announcing the first release of Bitcoin, a new electronic cash
> system that uses a peer-to-peer network to prevent double-spending.
> It’s completely decentralized with no server or central authority.
>
> See bitcoin.org for screenshots.
>
> Download link:
> http://downloads.sourceforge.net/bitcoin/bitcoin-0.1.0.rar
Congratulations to Satoshi on this first alpha release. I am looking
forward to trying it out.> Total circulation will be 21,000,000 coins. It’ll be distributed
> to network nodes when they make blocks, with the amount cut in half
> every 4 years.
>
> first 4 years: 10,500,000 coins
> next 4 years: 5,250,000 coins
> next 4 years: 2,625,000 coins
> next 4 years: 1,312,500 coins
> etc…It’s interesting that the system can be configured to only allow a
certain maximum number of coins ever to be generated. I guess the
idea is that the amount of work needed to generate a new coin will
become more difficult as time goes on.
One immediate problem with any new currency is how to value it. Even
ignoring the practical problem that virtually no one will accept it
at first, there is still a difficulty in coming up with a reasonable
argument in favor of a particular non-zero value for the coins.
As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.
So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about…
Hal
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